Description

This analysis provides a forecast of COMP5692 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-11-23 26.429861 28.131902 29.954166 32.062085 34.448485 37.084885 40.244001
2025-11-30 23.889452 26.200052 28.814440 32.033280 35.950751 40.649803 46.855161
2025-12-07 22.221949 24.804343 27.824943 31.692253 36.628510 42.899018 51.803252
2025-12-14 20.471860 23.105676 26.252370 30.385662 35.834079 43.039915 53.837298
2025-12-21 19.663900 22.452469 25.859397 30.459984 36.744813 45.450378 59.366162
2025-12-28 19.097606 22.038464 25.706557 30.791023 37.982192 48.418764 66.288216
2026-01-04 18.215741 21.163422 24.889223 30.142742 37.747546 49.145299 69.654146
2026-01-11 17.900515 20.987742 24.961070 30.697549 39.278257 52.755466 78.919494
2026-01-18 17.512031 20.688588 24.839285 30.953876 40.366044 55.789076 87.991198
2026-01-25 16.888587 20.046055 24.210958 30.425113 40.168513 56.587827 92.644636
2026-02-01 16.302717 19.427885 23.583452 29.851901 39.839477 57.094438 96.792299
2026-02-08 15.659078 18.707769 22.782300 28.971492 38.935155 56.431100 97.965695
2026-02-15 15.318900 18.451390 22.708072 29.324797 40.353607 60.841569 115.396126
2026-02-22 14.861461 18.021687 22.375948 29.277961 41.135215 64.313943 133.451696
2026-03-01 14.384590 17.535546 21.924497 28.990606 41.431649 66.818647 150.843793
2026-03-08 13.715518 16.751689 20.997426 27.871881 40.085862 65.417335 152.820180
2026-03-15 13.419312 16.479984 20.809046 27.935719 40.943099 69.283600 181.236823
2026-03-22 13.203169 16.310418 20.759908 28.219443 42.251339 74.635967 227.558660
2026-03-29 12.791087 15.842694 20.236571 27.663461 41.828085 75.420435 249.651127
2026-04-05 12.658702 15.773137 20.314696 28.139363 43.559888 82.662768 347.167168
2026-04-12 12.473667 15.618053 20.250719 28.358898 44.785300 88.976074 489.419290
2026-04-19 12.147406 15.243301 19.826136 27.905798 44.488468 90.402249 584.254737
2026-04-26 11.830199 14.872537 19.393806 27.413584 44.054455 91.283514 692.691925